
{"id":126,"date":"2003-11-18T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2003-11-18T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/opendna.com\/?p=126"},"modified":"2022-11-08T12:53:31","modified_gmt":"2022-11-08T12:53:31","slug":"theres-trade-warsa-brewing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/2003\/11\/18\/theres-trade-warsa-brewing\/","title":{"rendered":"There&#8217;s Trade Wars&#8217;a Brewing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>Every once in a while I get asked what I studied in university. I<br \/>\nreply, somewhat sheepishly that I studied the &#8220;Political Economy of<br \/>\nGlobalization&#8221;, which usually elicits blinks and incomprehension. What<br \/>\ndoes that mean? Here&#8217;s how university warped my mind:<\/i>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\nThere has been talk that the 2002 <a HREF=\"http:\/\/politicalwire.com\/archives\/002997.html\">steel tariffs have<br \/>\nbackfired<\/a>  on Bush. Any sophomore econ student could have predicted<br \/>\nthe economic ramifications. Any sophomore polisci student could have<br \/>\npredicted the WTO ruling. But things are spiraling out of control.<br \/>\n<i>Numbers in bold parentheses are <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.edwardsforprez.com\/dailykos.html\">electoral<br \/>\nvotes<\/a><\/i>.<\/p>\n<p>\nIn 2002 <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.philly.com\/mld\/inquirer\/news\/nation\/2849085.htm\">The<br \/>\nPhiladelphia Inquirer<\/a> evaluated Bush&#8217;s announcement of protectionist<br \/>\nsteel tariffs (<a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/www.cnsnews.com\/ViewNation.asp?Page=Nationarchive200203NAT2002<br \/>\n0306a.html&#8221;&gt;details<\/a>)<br \/>\nas an astute political move designed to seduce union voters in<br \/>\nPennsylvania <strong>(21)<\/strong>, West Virginia <strong>(5)<\/strong> and Ohio <strong>(20)<\/strong>.<br \/>\nThe tariff &#8220;could be bad news for Democrats&#8221;, the line went, as Bush was<br \/>\nattempting &#8220;to repeat the formula that worked for Richard Nixon (1972) and<br \/>\nRonald Reagan (1984) in their reelection efforts: Swipe enough union<br \/>\nvoters from the Democrats to ensure a landslide GOP victory.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\nBush&#8217;s promises to protect steel workers during the 2000 campaign are<br \/>\ncredited with his success in West Virginia and Ohio. The tariffs might<br \/>\nhelp him win Pennsylvania this time around (he lost it last time). Fine.<br \/>\nSo Bush wanted to buy some votes in some critical states. He pissed off<br \/>\nsome libertarian\/conservatives like <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.house.gov\/paul\/tst\/tst2002\/tst031802.htm\">Congressman Ron<br \/>\nPaul<\/a>, but they&#8217;d stick with him anyway. (Or so the logic goes.)<\/p>\n<p>\nThe steel consuming industries, of course, would get smacked by the ~40%<br \/>\nprice shock. In February, the <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.citac.info\/steeltaskforce\/studies\/job_study2003.php\">Consuming<\/p>\n<p>Industries Trade Action Coalition<\/p>\n<p><\/a> (CITAC) estimated that 200,000 jobs<br \/>\nhad  been lost by downstream manufacturers since the tariffs.  California<br \/>\nled the field in job losses. <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.democrats.org\/blog\/display\/00010029.html\">Kicking Ass<\/a><br \/>\nposted this on Sept 23rd:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Small business tip of the day: Don&#8217;t<br \/>\ninvite President Bush to speak at your small business.<\/p>\n<p>Back in April, Bush visited Timken Co. in Canton, Ohio, to promote his<br \/>\n&#8220;Jobs and Growth&#8221; plan.<br \/>\nAs <a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/ac2\/wp-dyn?pagename=article&#38;node=&#38;contentId<br \/>\n=A49361-2003Sep22&#38;notFound=true&#8221;&gt;Dana<br \/>\nMilbank reports<\/a> in today&#8217;s Washington Post (scroll down to the section<br \/>\nthat starts &#8220;BAD EXAMPLE&#8221;)&#8230; Timken, which manufactures steel bearings,<br \/>\nis lowering earnings forecasts and cutting 900 jobs.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\nSteel producers, for their part, say that the tariffs (and new investment)<br \/>\nresurrected 30,000 jobs. So says the <a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/ac2\/wp-dyn\/A31768-2003Sep18?language=printe<br \/>\nr&#8221;&gt;Washington<br \/>\nPost<\/a>. Its sources admit that the numbers are probably inflated on all<br \/>\nsides (only 15,000 to 20,000 steel consumer jobs lost) but&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>\nThe tariffs &#8220;didn&#8217;t win the [United Steelworkers of America] over, and he<br \/>\nsure as hell didn&#8217;t win the users over, and there are a hell of lot more<br \/>\nof us.&#8221; (Jim Zawacki, G.R. Spring &#38; Stamping, Inc of MI) In fact, the<br \/>\ntariffs have played out very poorly in politically strategic states like<br \/>\nMichigan <strong>(17)<\/strong>, Tennessee <strong>(11)<\/strong>, Illinois <strong>(21)<\/strong>.<br \/>\n(California, I think we can assume, was always a lost cause.) This comes<br \/>\nfrom the <a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/ac2\/wp-dyn\/A31768-2003Sep18?language=printe<br \/>\nr&#8221;&gt;Washington<br \/>\nPost<\/a> which also gives us this GOP-operative gem: &#8220;The only reason they<br \/>\nwon&#8217;t do it is if they&#8217;re unwilling to admit they made a mistake.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\nOf course, in the Age of Globalization no nation works in a vacuum. Few<br \/>\ncountries can raise tariffs without being dragged to the global trade<br \/>\ncourt: the <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/thewto_e\/thewto_e.htm\">WTO<\/a>. The court<br \/>\nhas ruled, and it bitchslapped The President to the tune of more than $2.2<br \/>\nbillion and gave him until December to make amends. So says the Wall<br \/>\nStreet Journal. (kudos <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.j-bradford-delong.net\/movable_type\/2003_archives\/001735.html\"><br \/>\nDeLong<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>\nSuppose the President was savvy enough to international institutions<br \/>\n(which he is known for defying) to expect the WTO to rule against the<br \/>\ntariffs (as suggested by some of DeLong&#8217;s commentors). That&#8217;s great, and I<br \/>\ncelebrate it as a deft political move. How&#8217;s he going to explain that he&#8217;s<br \/>\nchanging policy because one of the vilified international institutions has<br \/>\nordered him to? Nevermind that, we&#8217;re talking about global ramifications<br \/>\nnow.<\/p>\n<p>\nThe countries involved in the complaint included the European Union,<br \/>\nJapan, South Korea, China, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand and Brazil.<\/p>\n<p>\nThere are a number of reports from the UK that <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/usa\/story\/0,12271,1086792,00.html\">politically<br \/>\ntargeted sanctions<\/a> are pending against the United States. Stephen<br \/>\nByers, a inner-circle Blair supporter, has been pushing the EU&#8217;s top trade<br \/>\nnegotiator, Pascal Lamy, to impose tariffs against:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Citrus products<br \/>\n[Florida <strong>(27)<\/strong>]<\/li>\n<li>Apples and paper [Wisconsin<br \/>\n<strong>(10)<\/strong>]<\/li>\n<li>Chemicals [Tennessee <strong>(11)<\/strong>]<\/li>\n<li>Agricultural<br \/>\nequipment [Iowa <strong>(7)<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Textiles [southern states <strong>(?)<\/strong>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So that&#8217;s the Atlantic: politically targeted retaliatory tariffs.\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>\nIn South America, Brazil is the powerhouse needed on board before the<br \/>\nFTAA. Forget about it. CAFTA? <i>Please.<\/i><\/p>\n<p>\nChina? China will be slow to move, in my opinion, because the tariffs<br \/>\nappear to be increasing the investment in steel consumer industries (as US<br \/>\nsteel users move to China in search of cheap steel). I&#8217;m doubtful the<br \/>\nChinese are democratically savvy enough to pull a move like the EU.<br \/>\nBesides, The Administration has given an even broader opportunity by<br \/>\ndeciding to impose quotas on Chinese textiles. (the NY Times <a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/atrios.blogspot.com\/2003_11_16_atrios_archive.html#106919702059877<br \/>\n487&#8221;&gt;via<br \/>\nAtrios<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>\nChina&#8217;s new to this WTO thing (this was their first complaint), but they<br \/>\ncan see it as easily as we can: If the EU raises tariffs on US textiles<br \/>\nthen Chinese textiles can swallow up US export markets. Don&#8217;t. Touch.<\/p>\n<p>\nIf you were China, what industry would you want to protect with higher<br \/>\nprices? Electronics? Agriculture? I dunno, but I suspect if they can<br \/>\nprotect their currency policies, they will.<\/p>\n<p>\nYou know, this is all really poor performance for a &#8220;Free Trade&#8221;<br \/>\nPresident.<\/p>\n<p>\nOh yeah. Here&#8217;s a big &#8220;Thank You&#8221;, Mr. Blair:<\/p>\n<p>\nThe Bush administration has instructed American multinational companies to<br \/>\n<a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.j-bradford-delong.net\/movable_type\/2003_archives\/002745.html\"><br \/>\npack<br \/>\nup shop in Britain<\/a> and to relocate jobs to America. <a HREF=\"http:\/\/www.thisislondon.com\/news\/business\/articles\/timid70616\">This<br \/>\nIs London<\/a> reports that the Confederation of British Industry&#8217;s<br \/>\ndirector-general, Digby Jones, told members at this year&#8217;s annual<br \/>\nconference that &#8220;Three chief executives of American companies investing in<br \/>\nBritain have told me to my face that they have been told to close down,<br \/>\nbring their stuff home and make it in the US.&#8221; In Brad DeLong&#8217;s words,<br \/>\n&#8220;even [the Administration] wouldn&#8217;t do something as stupid and<br \/>\ncounterproductive as this. Would they?&#8221; (kudos <a>HREF=&#8221;http:\/\/www.atrios.blogspot.com\/2003_11_16_atrios_archive.html#10691016195<br \/>\n5858984&#8221;&gt;Atrios<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\nI dunno, Brad. They <i>did<\/i> think the steel tariff was a good idea&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every once in a while I get asked what I studied in university. I reply, somewhat sheepishly that I studied the &#8220;Political Economy of Globalization&#8221;, which usually elicits blinks and incomprehension. What does that mean? Here&#8217;s how university warped my mind: There has been talk that the 2002 steel tariffs [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"webmentions_disabled_pings":false,"webmentions_disabled":false,"activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":3,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[218],"tags":[17],"class_list":["post-126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=126"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1942,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126\/revisions\/1942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/opendna.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}